As former President Donald Trump prepares to hold a rally in Coachella, California, on October 12, recent polling data paints a bleak picture for his prospects in the Golden State.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, updated on October 7, 2024, Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris by a substantial margin of 24.9 percentage points, with Harris leading at 59.7% and Trump at 34.8%. This significant gap is consistent across multiple surveys, including a University of Southern California and California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy poll, which shows Harris leading Trump 58% to 36% among 1,685 likely voters.
California’s shifting political landscape has contributed to Trump’s struggles in the state. Once a reliable Republican stronghold, California has become increasingly Democratic over the past few decades. Trump’s 2016 performance was the worst for a Republican presidential nominee in California since 1856, with 31.62% of the vote. In 2020, President Joe Biden won California by approximately 30 points over Trump.
The state’s 54 electoral votes make it a crucial prize in presidential elections, but Trump’s visit may not significantly improve his chances. “California is a mess,” Trump said during a news conference in September, blasting Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom over their handling of immigration, crime, and local elections.
Trump’s campaign has framed the rally as an opportunity to address the state’s issues, with an email announcing the event stating, “Under Kamala Harris and her dangerous Democrat allies like Tim Walz, the notorious ‘California Dream’ has turned into a nightmare for everyday Americans.”
Despite the polling deficit, Trump’s visit is expected to draw attention from both supporters and opponents. In 2020, his fundraiser in Rancho Mirage attracted dozens of supporters, while hundreds of protesters gathered nearby.